Thứ Hai, 27 tháng 12, 2010

Indiana Bill Would Allow Cities to Declare Bankruptcy; Gary, Lake Station, Georgetown Likely Candidates; Hands Tied in Rhode Island

A bill in the Indiana legislature would allow local governments to declare bankruptcy. Given Governor Mitch Daniels is backing this plan, I expect it to pass. Best of all, the bill gives an emergency manager the ability to renegotiate labor contracts, and approve or veto contracts, expenses, loans and hiring.

Please consider Bill would allow Indiana cities to declare bankruptcy
A plan backed by Gov. Mitch Daniels would allow local governments in Indiana to ask for a state takeover and declare bankruptcy if necessary. Daniels says he hopes there won't be many local governments that seek bankruptcy, but says the state needs to have the law clarified and on standby in case it happens.

Republican state Sen. Ed Charbonneau of Valparaiso is sponsoring a bill to outline the procedure. His bill would allow a local government in financial trouble to ask the Indiana Distressed Unit Appeals Board to appoint an “emergency manager” to run the government.

The emergency manager would have the power to cut the budget, renegotiate labor contracts, and approve or veto contracts, expenses, loans and hiring.

The bill states that if the emergency manager can't turn around the local government's finances, the unit would be allowed to seek federal bankruptcy protection.

The State Board of Accounts in recent audits has questioned the abilities of the city governments in Gary and Lake Station to “continue as a going concern” because of continued high city spending despite significantly reduced city revenues because of statewide property tax caps.
I salute this bill and look forward to the bankruptcy of a handful of Indiana cities. Gary has a population of around 100,000 and is Indiana's fifth largest city. Lake Station has a population of about 14,000.

Details of the Bankruptcy Bill

Inquiring minds are reading Law would let cities declare bankruptcy for details about the bill.
State Sen. Ed Charbonneau, R-Valparaiso, is sponsoring Senate Bill 105, which would repurpose the Indiana Distressed Unit Appeals Board from providing property tax cap relief to supervising direct management of a local government.

Gary twice has won DUAB permission to charge the highest property tax rates in the state to bring its city budget into balance.

Under Charbonneau's bill to restructure DUAB, the council and executive of a local government could jointly seek to be designated a "distressed unit" if it meets one of eight financial criteria. Or, a coalition of a government's creditors owed more than 30 percent of the unit's anticipated annual revenue could ask DUAB to declare a local government distressed.

If DUAB agreed the local government were distressed, DUAB would appoint an "emergency manager" with the powers of both the council and executive, who could slash the budget; renegotiate labor contracts; review salaries; approve or veto contracts, expenses, loans and hiring; and audit the books -- all independently of the government's elected officials.

The emergency manager would not be allowed to raise taxes and would be required to work with elected officials to develop a financial plan for the future, according to the legislation.
Hallelujah! Raising taxes to meet untenable union wages and pension benefits has to stop.

Criteria for "distressed" designation (one of eight needed):

  • 1) Default in payment of principal or interest on bonds or notes
  • 2) More than 30 days late on payroll or two consecutive payrolls missed
  • 3) Failed to pay judgment creditors more than 30 days after judgment
  • 4) More than 30 days late any of the following: sending taxes withheld from employees, sending employer or employee contributions to Social Security or Medicare, depositing minimum obligation payment to a pension fund
  • 5) Accumulated a deficit in total government funds of more than 5 percent of current year revenues
  • 6) Seeks renegotiation of payments owed that are more than 30 percent of annual revenues and more than 90 days overdue
  • 7) The state is intercepting local government funds to make required payments
  • 8) Uses interfund loans to support the same fund for two years in a row


Tax Free Does Not Mean Worry Free


The Financial Sense article Muni Bonds: Tax Free Doesn't Mean Worry Free has a list of 26 states (up from 21 in 2007) that currently do not allow bankruptcy.

AlaskaNew Hampshire
DelawareNew Mexico
GeorgiaNorth Dakota
HawaiiOregon
IllinoisRhode Island
IndianaSouth Dakota
IowaTennessee
KansasUtah
MaineVermont
MarylandVirginia
MassachusettsWest Virginia
MississippiWisconsin
NevadaWyoming

The most recent addition to the above list is Rhode Island which just passed a law outlawing bankruptcy after the City of Central Falls disclosed it would seek bankruptcy.

Do the governors that signed such legislation really think problem will go away if the one possible solution is removed? Sheeesh?

Look for Indiana and Michigan to come off the list. In addition, Wisconsin governor-elect has proposed decertification of public unions, so I believe he would be agreeable to local bankruptcies if such a bill was presented to him.

Please see Hardball in Wisconsin; Massive Defeat for Unions in Lame-Duck Session for more about Wisconsin, governor-elect Scott Walker's showdown with state union employees.

Central Falls Prohibited From Bankruptcy

The only thing that makes any sense for Central Fall is bankruptcy, but that option is currently missing. Please consider Receiver to city: Financial ruin near
CENTRAL FALLS — The city’s financial problems are so profound that the only way to solve them is through a merger with Pawtucket or a regionalization of city services, the state-appointed receiver said in a report Thursday to the Carcieri administration.

“Central Falls, in my judgment, cannot remain a stand-alone community as it presently is, unless the state wants to subsidize this into the future,” said retired Superior Court judge Mark A. Pfeiffer, the man appointed by the state Department of Administration in July to run the city, with elected government officials in advisory roles, after those officials had earlier declared the city insolvent.

The underlying, built-in problems in the city’s finances — with sizable operating budget deficits projected well into the future — require significantly changing how municipal employee contracts and retirement benefits are handled under state law, he said.

Senate President M. Teresa Paiva Weed said underfunded municipal pensions have been the subject of a special Senate study commission, and Central Falls — with a $48-million unfunded pension liability, according to Pfeiffer — would put even more focus on that work.

“This will be a priority for the Senate in the upcoming legislative session,” she said. “TheSenate agrees that there is a need for swift but prudent action by the state.”

The state is already heavily involved in the city. It took over financing the local school system in the last big state fiscal intervention in 1991 and has spent $604 million on the city’s schools since then. Despite that effort, improvement has been difficult: this year, the city’s high school was rated one of the six worst-performing ones in the state.

In the short term, Pfeiffer said the city will need about $2.1 million in some form of state support authorized by the General Assembly, a grant or some kind of bond guarantee, to close a deficit in the current budget. Beyond that, he said more substantial changes were needed.

The major problem is the city, with an annual operating budget of about $16 million, is facing about $32 million in promised after-retirement health-insurance costs in addition to the $48 million in pension obligations.

“That’s $80 million for a city that has 19,000 citizens, approximately,” he said. “That’s a huge problem.”
No city would merge with Central Falls in a foolish attempt to save it. It would mean their own financial ruin. Furthermore, why should Rhode Island taxpayers in general have to fund Central Fall's pension obligation?

Massive Teacher Absenteeism at Central Falls High School

Check out the morally corrupt Central Falls Teachers union: Central Falls teacher absences still on the rise
Since the school year started Sept. 1, there has not been a single day when all of the 88 teachers at Central Falls High School have shown up for work.

On that first day, two teachers called in sick and a third took a personal day.

And there have been only five days — all in September — when administrators were able to replace all the missing teachers with substitutes.

Last week alone, there were at least 19 teachers out every day, 10 to 13 of whom called in sick each day.

The severity of the problem came to light last week when The Journal reported that more than half of the high school’s 840 students didn’t receive a grade in one or more classes for the first quarter.

The school’s leaders, Deputy Supt. Victor Capellan and co-principals Evelyn Cosme-Jones and Sonn Sam, said 453 students did not receive solid instruction in several classes, and therefore no grade could be given.

Since Nov. 12, there have been at least 20 teachers missing or absent at the high school each Friday. Starting Oct. 21, there were 14 to 19 teachers absent daily for seven straight days. And 453 of the 840 students at Central Falls High School didn’t receive enough instruction this fall to earn a grade in at least one class.
Like Detroit, Central Falls is fiscally, morally, and educationally bankrupt. The one and only thing that makes any sense for Central Falls is to declare bankruptcy.

Please see Detroit Mayor Plans to Halt Garbage Pickup, Police Patrols in 20% of City; Expect Bankruptcy, Massive Municipal Bond Turmoil in 2011 for the problems Detroit faces.

I expect Governor Snyder to do the right thing and allow Detroit to file. If it takes legislation, he will get it if he asks. The pending legislation in Indiana appears to be a good model for both Michigan and Rhode Island.

Let's hope Rhode Island governor-elect Lincoln D. Chaffee, an independent, has his head screwed on straight and asks the legislature to allow municipal bankruptcies. It is the only hope for Central Falls.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Unemployment Situation in Pictures; Manufacturing, State and Local, Temporary-Help

Inquiring minds are looking at charts of state and local employment, manufacturing, temporary help, and other items in the BLS Current Statistics report.

Please click on any chart to see a sharper image.

Note how local governments were still expanding mid-recession, all the way up till July of 2008. A year later, starting June of 2009, local governments finally got religion and started cutting jobs. Look for this trend to continue into 2011.




In spite of all the whining by states, they have not yet made any significant cuts in employment.



For all the brouhaha about the manufacturing recovery, employment in the manufacturing sector has dropped four consecutive months.



Total nonfarm employment shows the nature of the jobless recovery. Jobs are expanding barely enough to hold the unemployment rate constant, and it has taken a declining participation rate to do that.



Total nonfarm employment picked up nicely early-to-mid 2010 but most of that was part-time work for census data gathering. The net effect is employment growth was overstated through May, then understated the next few months as those workers were let go.



Total private employment has been growing at a reasonable clip, but not in comparison to previous recoveries that averaged 200,000 jobs a month.




26% of Jobs growth in 2010 has been from temporary help services.




Net Private Nonfarm Jobs vs. Temporary Jobs
MonthPrivateTemporaryNet
Total +1,171,000 +307,000+864,000
Average +106,500 +27,900+78,500
November +50,000 +39,500+10,500
October +160,000 +34,700+125,300
September +112,000 +27,300+84,700
August +143,000 +22,500+120,500
July +117,000 -6,700+123,700
June +61,000 +18,600+42,400
May +51,000 +30,400+20,600
April +241,000 +23,300+217,700
March +158,000 +32,300+125,700
February +62,000 +35,900 +26,100
January+16,000+49,200-33,200


The total number of private jobs added in 2010 is 1.17 million. 307,000 of them are from temporary help services. Even including those temporary jobs, the average number of private sector jobs has only been 106,500 a month, not enough to reduce the unemployment rate.

The Federal government continues to expand jobs even as local cutbacks pick up. Overall, government jobs are in contraction as local cutbacks exceed federal hiring.



The above graph is from the October report. Previous graphs from the November report. I still see no driver for jobs. Retail spending for clothes is not a sustainable driver. State and local cutbacks are coming, but that is a very good thing long-term.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Food, Fuel Inflation Hits India; Primary Price Index Up 15%, Credit Expansion Up 23%

China is not the only Asian economy that is overheating. Inflation in India is running at a double digit pace as is credit expansion. Please consider Food, fuel prices drive inflation worries
Rising prices in India of fuel and food are reviving worries about inflation and sent swap rates to 26-month highs as expectations grew for more rate increases in Asia's third-largest economy.

India's embattled government is expected to decide next week whether to increase state-set fuel prices as international crude oil hovered near two-year highs, a move that would have a broader inflationary impact than a decision earlier this month by state-run fuel retailers to lift the price of petrol.

In the year to Dec. 11, India's food price index rose 12.13 percent, with the price of onions -- the country's most widely-eaten vegetable -- of especial concern, while the fuel price index climbed 10.74 percent. This compared with 9.46 percent and 10.67 percent respectively in the previous week.

"Inflation is becoming a problem now. We expect the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) to hike rates sooner rather than later. Now we expect 50-75 basis points of rate hike in the next year, most of which should happen in the first half," said Manish Wadhawan, director and head of rates trading at HSBC in Mumbai.

Inflation worries are spreading in Asia, with Singapore on Thursday posting November inflation near a two-year high and Chinese consumer inflation for November at a 28-month high.

"We will certainly do whatever is required to bring down prices of onions," Cabinet Secretary K.M. Chandrasekhar said.

India's primary articles price index was up 15.35 percent in the latest week compared with an annual rise of 13.25 percent a week earlier, data on Thursday showed.

Last week, retailers raised petrol prices -- which were deregulated in June -- by nearly 6 percent.

Any rise above 2 rupees (4.4 cents) a litre in diesel must be approved by a ministerial panel, India's oil secretary told CNBC TV on Thursday.
Whatever It Takes

I have to laugh at statements like this: "We will certainly do whatever is required to bring down prices of onions."

What it takes is a slowing economy including a slowing of credit expansion.

Two or three quarter-point rate hikes will not do it. Nor will price controls. Yet, India's President Pratibha Patil is confident the economy will grow at about 9 percent in the current fiscal year ending March 2011 and would be on a sustained growth path of about 9 to 10 percent in FY12.

India Credit Expansion Up 23%

Please consider Credit-deposit growth gap behind liquidity crunch
The faster growth in bank credit than deposits is behind the present cash crunch, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said. Year-on-year credit growth was 23 per cent till December 3, while deposit growth was only 15 per cent, as compared to RBI's projection of 20 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively, for 2010-11.

The liquidity deficit, indicated by banks' borrowing from the repo tender of RBI, has been over Rs 1 lakh crore on an average since November.

Low government spending, coupled with slack deposit growth and advance tax outflows, has resulted in the crunch.

On Wednesday, banks borrowed a record Rs 1.7 lakh crore from RBI.
Indian Bank targets up to 28% credit growth

Inquiring minds are reading Indian Bank targets up to 28% credit growth
According to a top official working with the Indian Bank, the bank has the plans to target the credit growth to around 28 per cent during the current fiscal year as the demand for the credit this year seems to have risen quite a bit.

"We expect a credit growth of 27-28 per cent this year," the Chennai-based bank's Chairman and Managing Director, T M Bhasin, said.

"RBI has always been judicious and its decision to decrease the statutory liquidity ratio by 1 per cent will definitely infuse more liquidity in the system," he said.
The sustained growth assumptions of India and China at about 10% each are simply not going to happen. Both countries are overheating and there is a not so little constraint called peak oil that will get in the way. Should India maintain its rate of growth, do not expect to see any containment in price inflation. The same holds true for China.

For more on China, please see China Hikes Rates, Ponders Capital Controls to Halt Currency Inflows; Eight Reasons China Faces Hard Landing

India and China are going to overheat and crash, or their economic growth is going to slow dramatically, quite possibly both.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Chủ Nhật, 26 tháng 12, 2010

China Hikes Rates, Ponders Capital Controls to Halt Currency Inflows; Eight Reasons China Faces Hard Landing

Inflation is running at a reported 5.1% in China, a figure most believe is on the low side. Nonetheless, China has been loath to hike rates out of fear of more "hot money" flowing in. Something had to give, and it did. The markets forced China's hand.

Please consider China Increases Rates to Counter Highest Inflation in Two Years
China raised interest rates for the second time since mid-October to counter the fastest inflation in more than two years and more moves may follow.

The benchmark one-year lending rate will rise by 25 basis points to 5.81 percent and the one-year deposit rate will climb by the same amount to 2.75 percent, effective today, the People’s Bank of China said in a one-sentence statement on its website late yesterday.

Premier Wen Jiabao is seeking to slow gains in property values and consumer prices that are making it harder for families to buy homes and pay for food. Bank lending and a wider-than-forecast November trade surplus have pumped more cash into an economy already awash with money.

China is tightening after a record expansion of credit to counter the effects of the world financial crisis. The broadest measure of money supply, M2, has surged by 55 percent over the past two years and outstanding yuan-denominated loans have climbed 60 percent to 47.4 trillion.

Residence-related costs, including charges for water, electricity and rent, jumped 5.8 percent last month from a year earlier, the most in more than two years, and consumer goods prices rose 5.9 percent, the biggest gain since August 2008, according to statistics bureau data.

Policy makers are concerned that raising interest rates could “encourage hot money inflows,” Paul Cavey, a Hong Kong- based economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. said. “Raising interest rates has far more implications” than ordering lenders to set aside more of their deposits as reserves, as it may affect the ability of local governments and companies to pay their debts.

State Council researcher Ba Shusong told state television yesterday that the government will step up regulation of capital inflows, without specifying measures that will be taken.

The Ministry of Commerce is stepping up supervision of foreign investment in real estate to crack down on speculation after a 48 percent jump in overseas fund inflows to the industry in the first 11 months of the year, spokesman Yao Jian said on Dec. 15. Policy makers may also allow faster gains in the yuan to help curb inflation from higher prices of imported commodities, according to analysts’ forecasts.
China Overheating

China was number 5 on my list of Ten Economic and Investment Themes for 2011
5. China Overheats, Multiple Rate Hikes Coming

China, everyone's favorite promised land, has a hard landing. China will grow at perhaps 5-6% but that is nowhere near as much as China wants, or the world expects. Tightening in China will crack its property bubble and more importantly pressure commodities. The longer China holds off in tightening, the harder the landing.
Capital Controls Coming

Initially, rate hikes will encourage more "hot money" inflows into China. In hopes of preventing those inflows, China has announced more capital controls. It will be interesting to see precisely what those controls will look like.

Currency Sterilization Needed

One thing China should do is sterilize speculative hot money and balance of trade inflows via domestic government bond issuance, hoping to curb money supply growth.

However, it is not as simple as that, because in a fractional-reserve credit system, a net increase in lending itself increases money supply.

Clearly the Chinese central bank is behind the curve. Will China simply restrict lending? Would it even work?

I do not know about the former, but the latter would eventually force a hard landing if China gets serious enough. Actually, there are so many problems that I think a hard landing is coming regardless, and the longer China dallies, the harder it will be.

In the meantime, these paltry rate hikes by China of .25 points each pale in comparison to increases in reported consumer price increases.

Enormous Property Bubbles Including Vacant Cities

It is not "consumer price inflation" that is the big problem. Asset inflation, especially property speculation is rampant.

In case you missed it please consider The ghost towns of China: Amazing satellite images show cities meant to be home to millions lying deserted

Speculation will continue until China gets serious or until the pool of greater fools buying property at absurd prices dries up.

China’s Army of Graduates Struggles for Jobs

Exacerbating China's myriad of problems, an Army of Graduates Struggles for Jobs
In 1998, when Jiang Zemin, then the president, announced plans to bolster higher education, Chinese universities and colleges produced 830,000 graduates a year. Last May, that number was more than six million and rising.

It is a remarkable achievement, yet for a government fixated on stability such figures are also a cause for concern. The economy, despite its robust growth, does not generate enough good professional jobs to absorb the influx of highly educated young adults. And many of them bear the inflated expectations of their parents, who emptied their bank accounts to buy them the good life that a higher education is presumed to guarantee.

“College essentially provided them with nothing,” said Zhang Ming, a political scientist and vocal critic of China’s education system. “For many young graduates, it’s all about survival. If there was ever an economic crisis, they could be a source of instability.”

In a kind of cruel reversal, China’s old migrant class — uneducated villagers who flocked to factory towns to make goods for export — are now in high demand, with spot labor shortages and tighter government oversight driving up blue-collar wages.

But the supply of those trained in accounting, finance and computer programming now seems limitless, and their value has plunged. Between 2003 and 2009, the average starting salary for migrant laborers grew by nearly 80 percent; during the same period, starting pay for college graduates stayed the same, although their wages actually decreased if inflation is taken into account.

Chinese sociologists have come up with a new term for educated young people who move in search of work like Ms. Liu: the ant tribe. It is a reference to their immense numbers — at least 100,000 in Beijing alone — and to the fact that they often settle into crowded neighborhoods, toiling for wages that would give even low-paid factory workers pause.

“Like ants, they gather in colonies, sometimes underground in basements, and work long and hard,” said Zhou Xiaozheng, a sociology professor at Renmin University in Beijing.
Odds for social unrest will mount if China's growth slows. Yet, because of short-term overheating concerns on top of long-term peak oil issues there is no way China can keep growing at the current pace.

Eight Problems Facing China

  • Hot money inflows
  • Huge property bubble
  • Massive increases in money supply, much of it property speculation and building of unneeded capacity
  • Currency manipulation charges from the US and potential trade wars
  • Unsterilized trade imbalances fuel inflation
  • Slowing Europe
  • Dearth of Jobs for new graduates
  • Potential social unrest

Case For Hard Landing

Risks are enormously skewed to the downside, so much so that the odds China avoids a hard landing are not good. China is far more exposed to a slowdown in Europe than the US and the popping of China's property bubble will extract a huge toll.

Those plowing into commodities, foreign currencies, and equities (especially foreign equities), fail to consider those risks.

Moreover, given that much of China's growth is overheating and malinvestment, it is not even clear the Renminbi is undervalued.

For a look at India, please consider Food, Fuel Inflation Hits India; Primary Price Index Up 15%, Credit Expansion Up 23%

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

98 TARP Recipients Close To Failure; Citigroup's Chairman Gives Reasons Citigroup Should Be Broken Up

The Wall Street Journal reports 98 shaky TARP recipients are on the verge of failure as bad loans pile up. Please consider Bailed-Out Banks Slip Toward Failure
Nearly 100 U.S. banks that got bailout funds from the federal government show signs they are in jeopardy of failing.

The troubled banks identified by the Journal all have either a Tier 1 capital ratio under the "well-capitalized" 6% level; both a total risk-based capital ratio of under the "well-capitalized" 10% threshold and nonperforming loans of over 10% of their portfolio; or a regulatory order requiring the bank to monitor or boost its capital.

A Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. spokesman declined to comment on the Journal's analysis, which also calculated that 814 of the nation's 7,760 banks and savings institutions are troubled according to these standards, up from 729 at the end of the second quarter. The FDIC's official list of problem banks, which uses different criteria from the Journal's analysis, includes 860 financial institutions. The banks aren't publicly identified.

One example of a TARP recipient in deep trouble: closely held Legacy Bank of Milwaukee. José Mantilla, Legacy's president and chief executive, said the bank lends to an underserved, lower-income customer base.
As Legacy Bank careens towards failure, it appears its customer base was not "underserved" but rather "overserved".

Most of these failures will be relatively small ones. The median TARP infusion for the 98 banks was $10 million. The grand total of the 98 banks was about $4.2 billion. In contrast the first 8 large recipients received a total of $125 billion, now repaid.

Commercial real estate loans gone sour are at the heart of many small bank failures. One consequence of these failures is the too big to fail banks keep getting bigger.

Citigroup Too Interwoven to Fail, Chairman Says

As proof that Citigroup is one gigantic tangled mess, Citi Chairman Richard Parsons boasts Citigroup Too Interwoven to Fail
Citigroup remains too "interwoven" to fail even after the government has plowed billions into rescuing the banking titan and Congress has passed laws taking aim at financial behemoths, Citi Chairman Richard Parsons told CNBC.

"It's not a question of too big to fail," Parsons said in a live interview. "It's a question of too interwoven in the fabric of the global financial life to fail."

Parsons said allowing Citi to fail previously or in the future would be akin to having "the heart, the pump of the economic system fail because then everybody else dies."

"It's probably the most important private financial institution for maintaining our economic strength and presence around the world. You can't let an institution like that go down," he said.
Do these clowns even realize what they are saying? Parsons just gave a superb reason Citigroup needs to be broken up.

I suggest Citigroup should be forced to sell itself off piece by piece by piece, until it is not "too interwoven to fail". The same applies to Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.

Anything too big or too interwoven to fail, is simply too big.

In a free market with adequate fraud-prevention controls between various operations, these banks would likely not have gotten so big in the first place. They certainly would not have survived this global financial crisis if they did.

These gargantuan banks only exist intact because of Fed and taxpayer sponsored bailouts. Adding insult to injury, these banks pose the same systemic risk as before. Topping it off, Citigroup has the gall to brag about it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Militarization of the Economy; Retired Generals "Advise" the Pentagon as Paid Consultants of Defense Contractors

It's widely known that retired military officers frequently move into private industry at the end of their military careers. However, few realize these "generals-for-rent" are often hired back as a pentagon consultants. The potential for fraud is massive. Direct industry representatives get inside information about military programs and budgets. Then in a massive conflict of interest scheme, former generals get paid by both the Pentagon and the defense contractor.

Please consider the Pentagon to the private sector by Bryan Bender at Boston.Com.
An hour after the official ceremony marking the end of his 35-year career in the Air Force, General Gregory “Speedy’’ Martin returned to his quarters to swap his dress uniform for golf attire. He was ready for his first tee time as a retired four-star general.

But almost as soon as he closed the door that day in 2005 his phone rang. It was an executive at Northrop Grumman, asking if he was interested in working for the manufacturer of the B-2 stealth bomber as a paid consultant. A few weeks later, Martin received another call. This time it was the Pentagon, asking him to join a top-secret Air Force panel studying the future of stealth aircraft technology.

He said yes to both offers.

a Globe review has found, such apparent conflicts are a routine fact of life at the lucrative nexus between the defense procurement system, which spends hundreds of billions of dollars a year, and the industry that feasts on those riches. And almost nothing is ever done about it.

The Globe analyzed the career paths of 750 of the highest ranking generals and admirals who retired during the last two decades and found that, for most, moving into what many in Washington call the “rent-a-general’’ business is all but irresistible.

In some years, the move from general staff to industry is a virtual clean sweep. Thirty-four out of 39 three- and four-star generals and admirals who retired in 2007 are now working in defense roles — nearly 90 percent.

Among the Globe findings:

Dozens of retired generals employed by defense firms maintain Pentagon advisory roles, giving them unparalleled levels of influence and access to inside information on Department of Defense procurement plans.

The generals are, in many cases, recruited for private sector roles well before they retire, raising questions about their independence and judgment while still in uniform. The Pentagon is aware and even supports this practice.

When a general-turned-businessman arrives at the Pentagon, he is often treated with extraordinary deference — as if still in uniform — which can greatly increase his effectiveness as a rainmaker for industry. The military even has name for it — the “bobblehead effect."

The generals who navigate these ethical minefields said they are capable of managing potential conflicts without oversight, because of their own integrity.

“You have to have a firewall in your head," said industry consultant and former Vice Admiral Justin D. McCarthy.

But a number of retired generals contacted by the Globe said they are uncomfortable with the laxity of the system and refuse to use their Pentagon contacts to win private clients.

Navy Admiral William J. Fallon said he turned down consulting offers after learning that defense industry clients were seeking “tactical" information from inside the Pentagon. Said Fallon: “I didn’t want to be a walking Rolodex."

Retired Army General Wesley K. Clark, who now works as a lobbyist and investment banker for companies seeking alternative energy contracts, believes the growing hunger among private equity firms and Wall Street investors to enlist retired generals is a consequence of a broader phenomenon: the increasing importance of the military to America’s industrial base.

“It is the militarization of the economy," Clark said in a recent interview.
Here is a video from the article.



Bender's article is an excellent eight-page read. Please give it a closer look.

President Obama could easily put a stop to this fraud if he wanted to. So could have President Bush before him. So could Congress.

Yet nothing happens and we keep wasting more on more money on programs we do not need. For more details, please see Why the United States of America is Broke

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Sunday Funnies 2010-12-26 Bernanke and Kucinich Discuss the Need for Paper



In other news Bridgewater, New Jersey spends $17K to defend $5 fee it charged resident
A Somerset County town spent more than $17,000 defending a $5 fee it charged a resident for a compact disc of a council meeting.

Tom Coulter filed a complaint with the New Jersey Government Record Council in October 2008, saying he should pay the actual cost of the CD to get the recording.

The state council this year sided with Coulter and found he should have paid about 96 cents.

Bridgewater paid more than $14,000 in legal fees defending the case. It had to pay $3,500 to Coulter for his legal fees and give him a $4.04 refund.

Township Attorney Alan Grant tells The Courier News of Bridgewater the legal fees would have been substantially lower had Coulter settled, as the township had offered.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Thứ Bảy, 25 tháng 12, 2010

Pensions Eat 70% of Decatur, Illinois' Budget; New York City's $76 Billion Shortfall; Houston Mayor Wants Pension Benefit Cuts

Public pension woes continue to escalate. Here are three more stories highlighting problems at various cities in Illinois, New York, and Texas.

Pensions Eat 70% Decatur, Illinois Budget

Please consider Pensions eat up growing portion of city of Decatur's property tax revenue
As the Decatur City Council prepares to convene Monday to discuss setting its portion of the local property tax levy, the largest burden on those revenues - funding the pensions of police, firefighters and city employees - remains a persistent and growing challenge.

City Manager Ryan McCrady and Finance Director Ron Neufeld highlighted some telling statistics in the city's attempts to maintain its pension funds over the last decade.

"We've been putting in what we're required to put in, but the unfunded liability keeps growing," McCrady said.

In 2001, about 30 percent of the city's property tax levy went into paying down the pensions of its retired police and firefighters. In 2011, 70 percent of it will go toward pensions, even as recent years have seen cuts to other services that draw their funds from the same source, including the Decatur Public Library.

The state legislature sets all of the rules for pension contributions, and over the years it has mandated that municipalities make ever increasing payments. The result, McCrady said, has been a higher and higher cost for the city.

Recent pension reforms that passed the General Assembly and await the Gov. Pat Quinn's signature could provide long-term relief, McCrady said, but in the short term, city staff and the council have to figure out how to meet their obligations in a fiscal climate that leaves little breathing room.

"It's to the point now where taxpayers can't sustain a property tax levy to the point where we can fund these out of the property taxes," McCrady said. "We're starting to draw from other operations to pay for these obligations."
Long-term fixes won't do Decatur much good now if it runs out of money a few years from now. Property tax hikes certainly are not the answer either. I suggest bankruptcy, followed by outsourcing the police and fire departments to the lowest qualified bidder.

New York's Exploding Pension Costs

The Empire Center for New York State Policy discusses New York's Exploding Pension Costs
Public pension costs in New York are mushrooming—just when taxpayers can least afford it. Over the next five years, tax-funded annual contributions to the New York State Teachers’ Retirement System (NYSTRS) will more than quadruple, while contributions to the New York State and Local Retirement System (NYSLRS) will more than double, according to estimates presented in this report. New York City’s budgeted pension costs, which already have increased tenfold in the past decade, will rise by at least 20 percent more in the next three years, according to the city’s financial plan projections.

NYSTRS and NYSLRS are “fully funded” by government actuarial standards, but we estimate they have combined funding shortfalls of $120 billion when their liabilities are measured using private-sector accounting rules. Based on a similar alternative standard, New York City’s pension funds had unfunded liabilities of $76 billion as of mid-2008—before their net asset values plunged in the wake of the financial crisis.

In November 2003, the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research issued a report de-scribing New York State’s public pension system as “a ticking fiscal time bomb.”

The bomb is now exploding—and New Yorkers will be coping with the fallout for years to come.

New York’s state and local taxpayers support three public pension funds encom-passing eight different retirement systems—five covering different groups of New York City employees, and three covering employees of the state, local governments, school districts and public authorities outside the city. Between 2007 and 2009, these funds lost a collective total of more than $109 billion, or 29 percent of their combined assets. Two of the three funds ended their 2010 fiscal years with asset values below fiscal 2000 levels; the third has barely grown in the past decade.

Meanwhile, the number of pension fund retirees and other beneficiaries has risen 20 percent and total pension benefit payments have doubled in the past 10 years. Tax-payers will now have to make up for the resulting pension fund shortfalls.

Assuming the pension systems all hit their rate-of-return targets:

  • Taxpayer contributions to NYSTRS could more than quadruple, rising from about $900 million as of 2010-11 to about $4.5 billion by 2015-16. The projected increase is equivalent to 18 percent of current school property tax levies.
  • State and local employer contributions to NYSLRS will more than double over the next five years, adding nearly $4 billion to annual taxpayer costs even if most opt to convert a portion of their higher pension bills into IOUs that won’t be paid off until the 2020s.
  • New York City’s budgeted pension contributions, which already have in-creased by more than 500 percent ($5.8 billion) in the last decade, are projected to increase at least 20 percent more, or $1.4 billion, in the next three years.

Pension costs would be even higher if New York’s state and local retirement funds were not calculating pension contributions based on permissive government ac-counting standards, which allow them to understate their true liabilities.

While New York’s two state pension systems officially are deemed “fully funded,” we estimate that NYSLRS is $71 billion short of what it will need to fund its pension obligations, and that NYSTRS has a funding shortfall of $49 billion, based on valua-tion standards applied to corporate pension funds.

New York City’s pension systems are not as flush as NYSLRS and NYSTRS, which is the main reason why the city spends more for pension contributions than all of the state’s other public employers combined. The official “funded ratios” for the five city retirement systems ranged from 56 percent to 80 percent as of June 30, 2008. This would indicate they were $42 billion below fully funded status before the financial market meltdown wiped out more than 20 percent of their net assets. However, the city actuary also has computed alternative measures of funded status based on the kind of more conservative assumptions used in the private sector. These measures show the city’s pension system was underfunded by $76 billion in 2008.

The shortfalls in the city systems undoubtedly have grown much larger in the last two years, but the full dimensions of the problem won’t be known until the pension plans issue their financial reports for fiscal 2010.
Note that those shortfalls assume New York meets its expected rates of return of 7.5-8.0% based on plan. The odds of that happening are slim. Please see the article for more facts, figures, and charts.

Houston Mayor Wants Pension Benefit Cuts

The Houston Chronicle reports Houston mayor wants benefits cut, takes fight to Legislature
Instability in its three pension systems is the greatest threat to Houston's financial solvency, city officials and financial analysts say.

Within three years, according to an actuarial study commissioned by the city, the pension for firefighters will require the city to contribute 45 percent of its payroll costs for that retirement plan, a burden Mayor Annise Parker says is unsustainable.

The other two plans are in even worse shape. The police and municipal employee pensions are underfunded by $2.1 billion, roughly the equivalent of what the city spends annually for public safety and general operations.

"The bottom line is the whole system is completely unsustainable with current benefit levels and the city's financial position," said John Diamond, a Rice University public finance fellow and governmental tax consultant.

The opening salvo in what may be a long fight over city pensions is expected to take place in the upcoming state legislative session. The city is taking direct aim at the firefighters' pension, seeking help from state lawmakers to force pension officials to negotiate in hopes they can reduce benefits and lower annual contributions.

"Voters elected me to make tough choices, and voters elected me to get the city's budget in order," Parker said. "We are hemorrhaging right now … in some of our pension costs. … There's a difference between a fair pension and a gold-plated pension, and the citizens of Houston have to know that we can find a fair balance in there."

Christopher Gonzales, executive director of the firefighter pension, said the fund does not want to join the city in a "meet and confer" agreement, a sort of watered-down collective bargaining. Those negotiations with the two other employee pensions in recent years have only resulted in reduced benefits for the workers and annual contributions to the system that were not enough to ensure its financial security, he said.
The firefighters don't want "watered-down collective bargaining". Well, I don't want collective bargaining at all. Collective bargaining is one of the problems.

The mayor ought to grant Gonzales his watered-down wish and outsource police and fire to the lowest bidder. Then again, the City of Houston is Bankrupt (So are California, Oregon, and Pension Plans in General) so arguably the best thing for Houston to do is admit it and file for bankruptcy. The police and fire departments can then see what benefits they get in bankruptcy court.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Margin Debt Soars to Highest Levels Since September 2008

Margin debt is one measure of the amount of optimism or pessimism in the stock market. Rising margin debt generally correlates to a rising stock market. Margin use has soared to the highest level since September 2008.

Margin Debt vs. S&P 500



click on chart for sharper image

Margin Debt Data is from NYSE Factbook Securities Credit

ZeroHedge discussed margin debt in NYSE October Margin Debt Jumps To Highest Since Lehman Failure As Investor Net Worth Is At Lowest Since April Highs
It is not just the stock market that is at the highest levels since Lehman. Probably just as importantly, NYSE margin debt has surged to $269 billion, an increase of $13 billion from the prior month, and the highest since September 2008 when it was at $299 billion.

We are confident that NYSE cash in November will be at the lowest level of the year, not to mention December, as hedge funds leveraged everything they could, in some cases hitting as much as 3-4x gross leverage, in pursuit of beta, now that unleveraged alpha strategies have ceased to work. Which means that with retail stubbornly missing from the picture, the only beneficiaries of the HFT and Fed facilitated melt up are the 1000 or so hedge funds, where average net worth is in the 6 digits, that will be profitable this year.
Moreover, mutual fund cash levels have been near record lows since September, and topping it off, a respected friend tells me NYSE cash levels are negative $35 billion.

Collectively, this sounds like "all in" to me, and then some. However, just as in 2007, no one knows for sure when excessive optimism gets punished, historically it always is.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Thứ Sáu, 24 tháng 12, 2010

Merry Christmas and a Fed-Free New Year

Merry Christmas and a constitutional Fed-free New Year to all. Best wishes to you and all your loved ones in 2011 and beyond.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Kucinich's "End the Fed" Proposal is Unconstitutional; Emails from James Turk, Hugo Salinas-Price, others Regarding the Proposal

In Fatally Flawed "End the Fed" Proposal would Allow Congress to Print Money into Existence for Essentially Anything I blasted Rep. Kucinich's on the basis ...
Neither sound money nor the free market comes from printing money into existence. Arguably the only thing worse than the Fed printing money out of thin air is Congress printing money out of thin air for the purpose of full employment and/or any other absurd ideas Congress has.

The last thing we need, the very last thing we need is Congress lending money into existence to pay the bills or to do anything it wants for any reason.
Bill Is Unconstitutional

Several readers, James Turk among them pointed out Kucinich's bill is unconstitutional because the proposal amounts to issuing "bills of credit", an act is forbidden by the constitution.

Inquiring minds may wish to consider the following articles regarding constitutional money and bills of credit.


Those wishing to read the definitive comprehensive guide on American monetary law and history should consider “Pieces of Eight”, and James Turk's effort to reprint that guide.

Kucinich's bill is "To create a full employment economy as a matter of national economic defense; to provide for public investment in capital infrastructure; to provide for reducing the cost of public investment; to retire public debt; to stabilize the Social Security retirement system; to restore the authority of Congress to create and regulate money, modernize and provide stability for the monetary system of the United States, retire public debt and reduce the cost of public investment, and for other public purposes."

You cannot "restore" what was never there in the first place.

Gnazzo, Brown, and Kamenetsky point out these constitutional facts.

Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 of the Constitution states that Congress shall have the power "To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures."

Article I, Section 10, Clause 1 says "No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility."

Reader Emails

Eugene Holloway writes ...
What could pose more potential financial calamity than putting a cartel of banks in charge of your country's currency, giving the fox the keys to the henhouse?

Answer: Putting the U.S. Congress in charge, locking a hungry fox in the henhouse with the chickens. There is no precedent in our country for giving the Congress the unfettered power to dictate how much money can be printed. None. None. It has never been done. Never.

If anyone -- libertarian, conservative, Republican or Tea Party person -- tries to tell you that this is a good concept, please help him understand the certain consequences that will follow such folly.
Hugo Salinas-Price writes ...
Hi Mish!

Having Congress create money - because "money is scarce" - was the idea picked up by firebrand revolutionaries in France in 1790.

Voices of reason tried to stop the idiots, but they would not listen.

The French economy was totally destroyed in the following inflation. The madness finally ended when the paper currency went to zero value against gold. Not one of the revolutionaries ever admitted that the cause of the whole catastrophe was caused by fiat money!

Good luck stopping the idiots this time. You have, of course, read "Fiat Money Inflation in France" (1896) by Andrew Dickson White.

It's deja vu all over again.

Best regards

Hugo
Click on the preceding link, added by me, for a synopsis of the book.

My friend "HB" writes ...
Fractional reserve banking must end as it violates property rights and is the driver for the boom-bust cycle. However, abolishing fractional reserve banking should be done in concert with establishing a free banking system without a central bank and with a complete denationalization of money.

It is not possible to rectify the situation by transforming Congress into the new 'money printing from thin air' authority.

Kucinich's proposal is hair-raising nonsense for numerous reasons.

As much as I oppose the Fed and the fractional reserves system, it is actually better than what Kucinich proposes. Direct political control over the printing press would be an unmitigated disaster.

From the standpoint of constitutional law, the constitution does not confer the right to 'create' money from thin air on Congress. Rather, the clear intent of the constitution is for Congress to regulate the weights and measures of gold and silver coins. Those coins the only lawful money mentioned in the constitution. Thus, the current fiat money system is unconstitutional, even if the Supreme Court has said otherwise.

His assertions regarding the health care system and 'solar panels' and other alternative energy schemes are the usual socialistic clap-trap and easily refuted because such projects cannot exist without government subsidies, which ipso facto proves that they are uneconomic and will make the energy related situation worse instead of better.

The alleged 'aversion to borrowing' clashes with the reality that the US government deficit is now one of the highest in history. An aversion to borrowing would be good, not bad.

There is also no 'aversion to hiring people', but rather an economic situation brought on by the government interventions of the past, which have been instrumental in creating a credit-financed boom that has turned to bust. The more additional interventions are undertaken, the worse the employment situation will become.

Finally, it is NOT the 'job of Congress' to get everyone a job or to invest in this or that. Government-directed investment schemes and 'make work' programs will only consume more scarce capital and further lower the standard of living for everyone except perhaps for the few recipients of make-shift work projects at the expense of everyone else.
No one in their right mind should support Kucinich's mad proposal, unless their intent is to purposely make matters far worse. Fortunately, that bill is going nowhere with Ron Paul as Chairman of the Monetary Policy Subcommittee. I fully expect Ron Paul to enter a valid proposal sometime in 2011.

Addendum:

Further clarification Email from Eugene Holloway:
Paper money is unconstitutional. Legal tender is unconstitutional. You and I know that as a historical fact. But the U.S. Supreme Court, exposing its nature as a political body, has ruled otherwise. All of this is explained in my essays at http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/hollowayndx.html.

In case someone disagrees with the assertion, the reason I insisted that giving the Congress the unfettered power to print money is unprecedented is that, when the Treasury (approved by Congress) was in charge of the currency, the currency was convertible to gold or competed with it -- the Congress was thus limited. Today there is neither a Constitutional (according to the high court) nor a golden limitation. So the comments of Justice Field apply more than ever. And even more so the comments of the dissenters in the 1935 case in which the Court upheld the law invalidating gold clauses in private contracts: "Loss of reputation for honorable dealing will bring us unending humiliation; the impending legal and moral chaos is appalling."

I am a lawyer. When people consult me about probable consequences of proposed actions, I advise based upon the prevailing precedents and opinions of judges, which are indicative of likely results.

So when I wrote those articles, I painstakingly walked the reader through the documents and history of how the Constitution has been turned on it's head -- because simply saying that paper money, etc., is unconstitutional is not especially credible when the common assumption is that the Supreme Court is a bulwark that protects us against the Constitutional excesses of the other two branches.

The point of my essays is to demonstrate how, slowly, over decades and centuries, the Supreme Court can establish that anything is Constitutional, even if the clear intent and words of the founders are otherwise.

Eugene C. Holloway
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Thứ Năm, 23 tháng 12, 2010

WSJ Reports New Jersey Pension Deficit at $54 Billion; Actual Deficit $174 Billion; Illinois, California, New Jersey Among Worst States

The Wall Street Journal reports New Jersey Pension Gap Hits $54 Billion.
New Jersey’s pension gap grew to $53.9 billion in the last fiscal year, up from $45.8 billion, thanks to market losses and a lack of state funding, according to figures released Thursday.

Gov. Chris Christie’s administration said the gap, which reflected the state’s investment positions as of June 30, highlighted the need for proposed cuts to current public workers’ pensions. The $53.9 billion figure reflects the difference between the retirement benefits the state has promised to roughly 780,000 state and local workers over the next few decades and the amount on hand to pay those benefits.

In addition, an accounting practice called “smoothing” allows the state to factor market gains and losses over several years — meaning pension funds, on paper, are still feeling the effect of the 2008 market crash.

Christie, a Republican, wants to reverse a 9% pension bump workers received in 2001 under a Republican administration. Unions argue their members have an irrevocable right to benefits they have earned. The governor has challenged the unions to meet him in court.
Actual Deficit Much Higher

There are at least two problems with that $54 billion number.

1. It allows smoothing
2. Plan assumptions expect average annual returns of 8.25%.

I highly doubt pensions return 8.25% total (let alone annual) over the next 5 years.

10-year treasury yields are a mere 3.4%. To get higher returns, requires higher risk. History shows how well that idea has worked out for the last 10 years. There is no reason to assume the next 10 years will be any different.

In fact, given stretched valuations and overly optimist earnings estimates, there is every reason to suspect the next 5 years will be worse.

New Jersey Pension Funding

Here is a look at New Jersey pension funding from Interactive Map of Public Pension Plans; How Badly Underfunded are the Plans in Your State?



see above link for a workable map

New Jersey Subtotals

PERS - $48 Billion
Teachers - $61 Billion
Police and Fire - $36 Billion

Those subtotals net to a combined $145 billion. They are from March 2010 so there has likely been some improvement since then. However, those totals do not include all of the state pension plans nor any deficits in city or county pension plans.

The interactive map and those subtotals are based on data from Calculating the Market Price of Public Sector Pension Liabilities, by Andrew Biggs at the American Enterprise Institute.

The American Enterprise Institute report is quite detailed. However, it only includes 3 of 7 New Jersey defined benefit pension plans.

New Jersey Defined Benefit Plans

  • Teacher's Pension Annuity Fund (TPAF)
  • Public Employees Retirement Fund (PERS),
  • Police and Firemen's Retirement System (PFRS)
  • State Police Retirement System (SPRS)
  • Judicial Retirement System (JRS)

There are two existing defined benefit plans closed to current workers, the Consolidated Police and Firemen's Pension Fund (CPFPF), and the Prison Officer's Pension Fund (POPF).

Thus, New Jersey's liability is hugely understated, even at $145 billion.

Crisis in Public Sector Pension Plans

Please consider Crisis in Public Sector Pension Plans by George Mason University.
Pension plans operated by state governments on behalf of their employees are underfunded by an estimated $452 billion according to official reports, with total liabilities of $2.8 trillion and total assets of $2.3 trillion in 2008. However, many economists argue that even these daunting liabilities are understated. Current public sector accounting methods allow plans to assume they can earn high investment returns without any risk. Using methods that are required for private sector pensions, which value pension liabilities according to likelihood of payment rather than the return expected on pension assets, total liabilities amount to $5.2 trillion and the unfunded liability rises to $3 trillion. The ability of governments to pay for the retirement benefits promised to public sector workers runs up against the reality of limited resources.

The state reports that its pension systems are underfunded by $44.7 billion, when liabilities are discounted at the 8.25 percent annual return that New Jersey predicts it can achieve on funds' investment portfolios.

However, when plan liabilities are calculated in a manner consistent with private sector accounting requirements, methods that economists almost universally agree are more appropriate, New Jersey's unfunded benefit obligation rises to $173.9 billion. This amount is equivalent to 44 percent of the state's current GDP8 and 328 percent of its current explicit government debt. This calculation applies a discount rate of 3.5 percent (the yield on Treasury bonds with a maturity of 15 years) to reflect the nearly risk-free nature of accrued benefits for workers. It is estimated if state pension assets average a return of 8 percent, New Jersey will run out of funds to meet its pension obligations in 2019. If asset returns are lower than 8 percent, they will run out of funds sooner. State actuaries estimate that under certain assumptions, New Jersey's pension plans will run out of assets to make benefit payments beginning in 2013.

Governor Chris Christie signed legislation on March 22, 2010 to reduce the size of the unfunded liability. These measures include capping payments for unused sick days, banning part-time workers from receiving pensions, and requiring government workers to contribute 1.5 percent of their salaries toward health care. Legislation also adjusted the formula used to calculate benefits, returning to the pre-2001 formula where benefits equalled 1.7 percent of final salary times number of years of service, versus 1.8 percent of final salary in the TPAF and PERS plans. Also, members of these plans would have their retirement allowance calculated based on the final five years of service, instead of the final three. However, these changes to benefits would apply only to newly-hired public employees. Current workers, even those who recently entered the job rolls, would be able to continue under the current benefit formula for the rest of their careers.

These measures will help at the margins but do little or nothing to address the size of the liability that has already been accrued. The rate of accrual of benefits will have to be reduced further, and employees will have to contribute more to their plans. The state must recognize that adding more workers to a system that is underfunded by $173 billion by market standards, representing over 40 percent of New Jersey's GDP, is not a tenable option.
The report cites Calculating the Market Price of Public Sector Pension Liabilities, the same study used to create the interactive map.

Report Recommendations

  • Reduce benefits for newly-hired public employees
  • All newly hired employees should be shifted to a defined contribution pension model based upon the plan already offered to New Jersey's university employees
  • Current reforms lowering pension replacement rates should be continued and, if possible, extended to current employees. All vested benefits should be honored, but the rate at which future benefits are earned should be reduced.
  • Current employees who are not yet vested in their benefits might be shifted along with newly hired employees to a defined contribution plan. This step could produce savings to existing DB plans while moving more quickly to a sustainable pension model for public employees.

I agree with those except honoring vested benefits. I recommend taxing the hell out of benefits above a certain level.

Here is a look at liabilities state by state.

Unfunded Liabilities by State



click on chart for sharper image

California is the worst state in absolute terms. In per capita terms, Illinois appears to be in the worst shape. However that statement does not factor in all of New Jersey's pension plans. Then again, the Biggs report does not include all of Illinois' public pension plans either. The mess everywhere is far bigger than it looks.

Pension Apartheid Doesn't Work

Unions are screaming about an Irrevocable Right to Benefits. Leo Kolivakis at Pension Pulse sums up the situation nicely.
State governments have little choice but to raise the retirement age, cut benefits, and partially or fully remove inflation protection of public sector pensions. They should also revise their rosy investment assumptions for state plans.

This may seem unfair and unreasonable to public sector workers, but to quote a strategist who I spoke with yesterday, "deleveraging sucks". You can't have pensions apartheid between the private and public sector. And there are no "irrevocable rights to benefits". Just look at the mess Greece and Ireland are in right now. When the money runs out, cuts are guaranteed.
Yes indeed. Not only do Greece and Ireland prove it, but so does Prichard, Alabama the first city in the country to default on pensions. Please see Alabama Town Defaults on Pensions, Breaks State Law; Renewed Calls For San Diego Bankruptcy; "Prichard is the Future" for details.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Florida League of Cities Poll on Police and Fire Salaries Shows Public out of Touch Regarding Benefits

An interesting Poll by the Florida League of Cities on Police and Fire Benefits shows the public is way out of touch with how generous police and fire benefits are. When asked if benefits were too high, most thought no. When given actual benefit levels most thought the opposite.

Here are snips from the executive summary and a few questions.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

When it comes to the pay and benefits of police and fire fighters, voters are generally unaware of the array of benefits currently afforded them. Initially and by a large margin most respondents felt these benefits are “about right” or “too low”.

We asked an extended series of questions identifying the assortment of pay and benefits currently provided to most police and fire fighters. Almost without exception, voters feel that most of these benefits are too generous. For example, 63% felt retirement benefits should be consistent with other government employees, 66% opposed 20 years and out, and 73% felt that adding overtime to base calculations was unfair. Further, 70% oppose DROP, 71% felt $70,000 per year average salary was too high, and a whopping 84% felt they should not make the same when they retire as when they are working!

Oddly, more than 60% stated that increasing benefits could bankrupt local government yet 77% do not equate these pension benefits to taxes and instead correlate higher taxes to “other spending and other government programs”.

We can conclude, based on these findings, that the public is largely ignorant or agnostic to benefit packages and salaries currently available to police and fire fighters. However, once they are informed about these benefits, they believe they are excessive and have problems with several of them specifically.

1. Do you think that the salary and benefits provided to police officers and fire fighters are:

Much Too High 9%
Somewhat High 12%
About Right 51%
Too Low 28%

Just over half of respondents said that salaries and benefits provided to police officers and fire fighters are just right.

3. Which of the following comes closer to your opinion?

Police officer and firefighters should be allowed to retire after 20 years of
service because their jobs are hard. 37%
They should have retirement benefits that are consistent with other government employees. 63%

4. In some cities, police officers or firefighters can retire after 20 years of service and receive 80% of their salaries for the rest of their lives. This means that for many, they can retire in their early to mid forties and receive pensions as high as $80,000 per year for the rest of their lives. Do you:

Strongly Support 16%
Somewhat Support 18%
Somewhat Oppose 24%
Strongly Oppose 42%
Support 34%
Oppose 66%

9. If you knew that the retirement pay for an average police officer was over $70,000 per year would you say:

That is Too Low 1%
That it is About Right 28%
That it is Too High 45%
That it is Much Too High 26%
These results show just how effective police and fire unions have been on fearmongering campaigns as well as bitching about how little they get paid and getting the public to believe it.

Cities need to do a far better job at education the public just how exorbitant police and fire contracts are, and that it is tax dollars that support those untenable benefits, putting cities in financial jeopardy.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Retail Recession Hits Australia; Retailers Cry for Help

In the face of a property bust down under, Australian shoppers have increasingly turned to the internet in search of bargains. In turn, Australia retailers are whining about $1000 duty free allowance on overseas shopping.

Retailers Cry For "Reform"

Please consider Retailers cry out for trading help
The gloom engulfing the nation's retailers is deepening in the week before Christmas - traditionally their best period.

Peak employer group the Victorian Employers Chamber of Commerce and Industry yesterday called for a stimulus-like package to help ailing retailers.

Spokesman Chris James said if retail did not rebound over Christmas, which it was unlikely to do, reforms were needed.

These included personal tax cuts to give people the confidence to start spending and industrial relations reform, with particular attention to lifting restrictions on businesses employing students and casuals.
Shopping Slump

Inquiring minds are reading Retailers cry poor as sales drop sharply
Major store bosses claim Australia is experiencing a retail recession, with the quietest and slowest Christmas shopping period in 20 years.

Rising utility bills, mortgage rates and rents have decimated families' disposable incomes, forcing many retailers to start Boxing Day sales one month in advance in a bid to entice shoppers.

Harvey Norman boss Gerry Harvey said there would be "blood on the streets" in the retail sector because business is so bad, the worst since the recession of the early 1990s.

"It's a crisis, the worst in 20 years," he said.

"There is a recession in retail right now. Boxing Day sales have had to come early because retailers need to sell something to pay their staff."

The news comes as the Government announced an inquiry into the future of the retail sector to examine issues of competition, and the $1000 GST and duty-free threshold on overseas shopping.

Australian retailers and shopping centre owners have formed an alliance to try to persuade the government to abolish the $1000 GST-free threshold. They plan to spend millions on an advertising campaign to try to have imported goods subject to tax and import duty.
Subdued Sales

The West Australian reports Slow start to festive season sales
Retail Traders Association of WA executive director Wayne Spencer says the sales on Boxing Day, the biggest retail trading day of the year, will be vital for struggling retailers this year.

"It's make or break for the retailers," he said.

Mr Spencer predicts WA's spend will slip from $2.81 billion last year to $2.8 billion this year.

He said despite there being an additional 52,000 people in WA, the spend was likely to be down, close to 10 per cent a person.

The Australian Retailers Association says more than 65 per cent of retailers nationally are trading worse than the same time last year.
Email From Down Under

I frequently get emails from down under. Here is one from "Brisbane Bear" that just came in.
Hey Mish,

Retailers are desperately lobbying the government to do 'something' about the dire state of the economy. Retail is being hit by the perfect storm and shoppers are turning to the internet.

For example, a shirt made in China for $5, sells in the USA for $30. The same shirt might sell for Australia for $120. A pair of quality boots selling for $120 online, retails in OZ for $220.

Our business models are not even remotely competitive.

The internet is not only letting people buy cheaper, it is actually allowing people to compare prices. Folks are learning quick smart that they are & have been ripped off for years.

The other big problem businesses are facing are these Groupon type companies offering amazing deals on just about everything.

These deal prices are quickly becoming the new price.

Regards
Brisbane Bear
Commercial Real Estate Bust Coming

Sales are flat and Australian merchants are screaming. Watch what happens when sales drop 10%. Inquiring minds might be wondering how stores can be struggling so much. The answer is a massively overbuilt retail sector and stores are struggling to meet their monthly nut. The same thing happened in the US.

Look for a wave of bankruptcies, vacancies, and a huge commercial real estate bust to go along with the residential housing bust. That was point number six in Ten Economic and Investment Themes for 2011
6. Property Bubble Bursts Wide Open in Australia and Canada

Australia, having largely avoided the global recession runs out of luck this time around. Look for the Australian economy to fall into outright recession. Look for Canada to slow dramatically as its property bubble pops. The US property bubble is much further progressed, by years, than Australia, Canada, and China. This matters immensely.
On April 18, 2008 I wrote Shopping Center Economic Model Is History. 2 years and 8 months later, Australia is about to find out the same thing.

Halting the $1000 GST and duty-free threshold on overseas shopping will increase the demand for bargains. Marginal stores are in serious trouble.

Look for Australia's "retail recession" to become a full blown recession.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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