Thứ Bảy, 25 tháng 12, 2010

Pensions Eat 70% of Decatur, Illinois' Budget; New York City's $76 Billion Shortfall; Houston Mayor Wants Pension Benefit Cuts

Public pension woes continue to escalate. Here are three more stories highlighting problems at various cities in Illinois, New York, and Texas.

Pensions Eat 70% Decatur, Illinois Budget

Please consider Pensions eat up growing portion of city of Decatur's property tax revenue
As the Decatur City Council prepares to convene Monday to discuss setting its portion of the local property tax levy, the largest burden on those revenues - funding the pensions of police, firefighters and city employees - remains a persistent and growing challenge.

City Manager Ryan McCrady and Finance Director Ron Neufeld highlighted some telling statistics in the city's attempts to maintain its pension funds over the last decade.

"We've been putting in what we're required to put in, but the unfunded liability keeps growing," McCrady said.

In 2001, about 30 percent of the city's property tax levy went into paying down the pensions of its retired police and firefighters. In 2011, 70 percent of it will go toward pensions, even as recent years have seen cuts to other services that draw their funds from the same source, including the Decatur Public Library.

The state legislature sets all of the rules for pension contributions, and over the years it has mandated that municipalities make ever increasing payments. The result, McCrady said, has been a higher and higher cost for the city.

Recent pension reforms that passed the General Assembly and await the Gov. Pat Quinn's signature could provide long-term relief, McCrady said, but in the short term, city staff and the council have to figure out how to meet their obligations in a fiscal climate that leaves little breathing room.

"It's to the point now where taxpayers can't sustain a property tax levy to the point where we can fund these out of the property taxes," McCrady said. "We're starting to draw from other operations to pay for these obligations."
Long-term fixes won't do Decatur much good now if it runs out of money a few years from now. Property tax hikes certainly are not the answer either. I suggest bankruptcy, followed by outsourcing the police and fire departments to the lowest qualified bidder.

New York's Exploding Pension Costs

The Empire Center for New York State Policy discusses New York's Exploding Pension Costs
Public pension costs in New York are mushrooming—just when taxpayers can least afford it. Over the next five years, tax-funded annual contributions to the New York State Teachers’ Retirement System (NYSTRS) will more than quadruple, while contributions to the New York State and Local Retirement System (NYSLRS) will more than double, according to estimates presented in this report. New York City’s budgeted pension costs, which already have increased tenfold in the past decade, will rise by at least 20 percent more in the next three years, according to the city’s financial plan projections.

NYSTRS and NYSLRS are “fully funded” by government actuarial standards, but we estimate they have combined funding shortfalls of $120 billion when their liabilities are measured using private-sector accounting rules. Based on a similar alternative standard, New York City’s pension funds had unfunded liabilities of $76 billion as of mid-2008—before their net asset values plunged in the wake of the financial crisis.

In November 2003, the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research issued a report de-scribing New York State’s public pension system as “a ticking fiscal time bomb.”

The bomb is now exploding—and New Yorkers will be coping with the fallout for years to come.

New York’s state and local taxpayers support three public pension funds encom-passing eight different retirement systems—five covering different groups of New York City employees, and three covering employees of the state, local governments, school districts and public authorities outside the city. Between 2007 and 2009, these funds lost a collective total of more than $109 billion, or 29 percent of their combined assets. Two of the three funds ended their 2010 fiscal years with asset values below fiscal 2000 levels; the third has barely grown in the past decade.

Meanwhile, the number of pension fund retirees and other beneficiaries has risen 20 percent and total pension benefit payments have doubled in the past 10 years. Tax-payers will now have to make up for the resulting pension fund shortfalls.

Assuming the pension systems all hit their rate-of-return targets:

  • Taxpayer contributions to NYSTRS could more than quadruple, rising from about $900 million as of 2010-11 to about $4.5 billion by 2015-16. The projected increase is equivalent to 18 percent of current school property tax levies.
  • State and local employer contributions to NYSLRS will more than double over the next five years, adding nearly $4 billion to annual taxpayer costs even if most opt to convert a portion of their higher pension bills into IOUs that won’t be paid off until the 2020s.
  • New York City’s budgeted pension contributions, which already have in-creased by more than 500 percent ($5.8 billion) in the last decade, are projected to increase at least 20 percent more, or $1.4 billion, in the next three years.

Pension costs would be even higher if New York’s state and local retirement funds were not calculating pension contributions based on permissive government ac-counting standards, which allow them to understate their true liabilities.

While New York’s two state pension systems officially are deemed “fully funded,” we estimate that NYSLRS is $71 billion short of what it will need to fund its pension obligations, and that NYSTRS has a funding shortfall of $49 billion, based on valua-tion standards applied to corporate pension funds.

New York City’s pension systems are not as flush as NYSLRS and NYSTRS, which is the main reason why the city spends more for pension contributions than all of the state’s other public employers combined. The official “funded ratios” for the five city retirement systems ranged from 56 percent to 80 percent as of June 30, 2008. This would indicate they were $42 billion below fully funded status before the financial market meltdown wiped out more than 20 percent of their net assets. However, the city actuary also has computed alternative measures of funded status based on the kind of more conservative assumptions used in the private sector. These measures show the city’s pension system was underfunded by $76 billion in 2008.

The shortfalls in the city systems undoubtedly have grown much larger in the last two years, but the full dimensions of the problem won’t be known until the pension plans issue their financial reports for fiscal 2010.
Note that those shortfalls assume New York meets its expected rates of return of 7.5-8.0% based on plan. The odds of that happening are slim. Please see the article for more facts, figures, and charts.

Houston Mayor Wants Pension Benefit Cuts

The Houston Chronicle reports Houston mayor wants benefits cut, takes fight to Legislature
Instability in its three pension systems is the greatest threat to Houston's financial solvency, city officials and financial analysts say.

Within three years, according to an actuarial study commissioned by the city, the pension for firefighters will require the city to contribute 45 percent of its payroll costs for that retirement plan, a burden Mayor Annise Parker says is unsustainable.

The other two plans are in even worse shape. The police and municipal employee pensions are underfunded by $2.1 billion, roughly the equivalent of what the city spends annually for public safety and general operations.

"The bottom line is the whole system is completely unsustainable with current benefit levels and the city's financial position," said John Diamond, a Rice University public finance fellow and governmental tax consultant.

The opening salvo in what may be a long fight over city pensions is expected to take place in the upcoming state legislative session. The city is taking direct aim at the firefighters' pension, seeking help from state lawmakers to force pension officials to negotiate in hopes they can reduce benefits and lower annual contributions.

"Voters elected me to make tough choices, and voters elected me to get the city's budget in order," Parker said. "We are hemorrhaging right now … in some of our pension costs. … There's a difference between a fair pension and a gold-plated pension, and the citizens of Houston have to know that we can find a fair balance in there."

Christopher Gonzales, executive director of the firefighter pension, said the fund does not want to join the city in a "meet and confer" agreement, a sort of watered-down collective bargaining. Those negotiations with the two other employee pensions in recent years have only resulted in reduced benefits for the workers and annual contributions to the system that were not enough to ensure its financial security, he said.
The firefighters don't want "watered-down collective bargaining". Well, I don't want collective bargaining at all. Collective bargaining is one of the problems.

The mayor ought to grant Gonzales his watered-down wish and outsource police and fire to the lowest bidder. Then again, the City of Houston is Bankrupt (So are California, Oregon, and Pension Plans in General) so arguably the best thing for Houston to do is admit it and file for bankruptcy. The police and fire departments can then see what benefits they get in bankruptcy court.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Margin Debt Soars to Highest Levels Since September 2008

Margin debt is one measure of the amount of optimism or pessimism in the stock market. Rising margin debt generally correlates to a rising stock market. Margin use has soared to the highest level since September 2008.

Margin Debt vs. S&P 500



click on chart for sharper image

Margin Debt Data is from NYSE Factbook Securities Credit

ZeroHedge discussed margin debt in NYSE October Margin Debt Jumps To Highest Since Lehman Failure As Investor Net Worth Is At Lowest Since April Highs
It is not just the stock market that is at the highest levels since Lehman. Probably just as importantly, NYSE margin debt has surged to $269 billion, an increase of $13 billion from the prior month, and the highest since September 2008 when it was at $299 billion.

We are confident that NYSE cash in November will be at the lowest level of the year, not to mention December, as hedge funds leveraged everything they could, in some cases hitting as much as 3-4x gross leverage, in pursuit of beta, now that unleveraged alpha strategies have ceased to work. Which means that with retail stubbornly missing from the picture, the only beneficiaries of the HFT and Fed facilitated melt up are the 1000 or so hedge funds, where average net worth is in the 6 digits, that will be profitable this year.
Moreover, mutual fund cash levels have been near record lows since September, and topping it off, a respected friend tells me NYSE cash levels are negative $35 billion.

Collectively, this sounds like "all in" to me, and then some. However, just as in 2007, no one knows for sure when excessive optimism gets punished, historically it always is.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Thứ Sáu, 24 tháng 12, 2010

Merry Christmas and a Fed-Free New Year

Merry Christmas and a constitutional Fed-free New Year to all. Best wishes to you and all your loved ones in 2011 and beyond.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Kucinich's "End the Fed" Proposal is Unconstitutional; Emails from James Turk, Hugo Salinas-Price, others Regarding the Proposal

In Fatally Flawed "End the Fed" Proposal would Allow Congress to Print Money into Existence for Essentially Anything I blasted Rep. Kucinich's on the basis ...
Neither sound money nor the free market comes from printing money into existence. Arguably the only thing worse than the Fed printing money out of thin air is Congress printing money out of thin air for the purpose of full employment and/or any other absurd ideas Congress has.

The last thing we need, the very last thing we need is Congress lending money into existence to pay the bills or to do anything it wants for any reason.
Bill Is Unconstitutional

Several readers, James Turk among them pointed out Kucinich's bill is unconstitutional because the proposal amounts to issuing "bills of credit", an act is forbidden by the constitution.

Inquiring minds may wish to consider the following articles regarding constitutional money and bills of credit.


Those wishing to read the definitive comprehensive guide on American monetary law and history should consider “Pieces of Eight”, and James Turk's effort to reprint that guide.

Kucinich's bill is "To create a full employment economy as a matter of national economic defense; to provide for public investment in capital infrastructure; to provide for reducing the cost of public investment; to retire public debt; to stabilize the Social Security retirement system; to restore the authority of Congress to create and regulate money, modernize and provide stability for the monetary system of the United States, retire public debt and reduce the cost of public investment, and for other public purposes."

You cannot "restore" what was never there in the first place.

Gnazzo, Brown, and Kamenetsky point out these constitutional facts.

Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 of the Constitution states that Congress shall have the power "To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures."

Article I, Section 10, Clause 1 says "No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility."

Reader Emails

Eugene Holloway writes ...
What could pose more potential financial calamity than putting a cartel of banks in charge of your country's currency, giving the fox the keys to the henhouse?

Answer: Putting the U.S. Congress in charge, locking a hungry fox in the henhouse with the chickens. There is no precedent in our country for giving the Congress the unfettered power to dictate how much money can be printed. None. None. It has never been done. Never.

If anyone -- libertarian, conservative, Republican or Tea Party person -- tries to tell you that this is a good concept, please help him understand the certain consequences that will follow such folly.
Hugo Salinas-Price writes ...
Hi Mish!

Having Congress create money - because "money is scarce" - was the idea picked up by firebrand revolutionaries in France in 1790.

Voices of reason tried to stop the idiots, but they would not listen.

The French economy was totally destroyed in the following inflation. The madness finally ended when the paper currency went to zero value against gold. Not one of the revolutionaries ever admitted that the cause of the whole catastrophe was caused by fiat money!

Good luck stopping the idiots this time. You have, of course, read "Fiat Money Inflation in France" (1896) by Andrew Dickson White.

It's deja vu all over again.

Best regards

Hugo
Click on the preceding link, added by me, for a synopsis of the book.

My friend "HB" writes ...
Fractional reserve banking must end as it violates property rights and is the driver for the boom-bust cycle. However, abolishing fractional reserve banking should be done in concert with establishing a free banking system without a central bank and with a complete denationalization of money.

It is not possible to rectify the situation by transforming Congress into the new 'money printing from thin air' authority.

Kucinich's proposal is hair-raising nonsense for numerous reasons.

As much as I oppose the Fed and the fractional reserves system, it is actually better than what Kucinich proposes. Direct political control over the printing press would be an unmitigated disaster.

From the standpoint of constitutional law, the constitution does not confer the right to 'create' money from thin air on Congress. Rather, the clear intent of the constitution is for Congress to regulate the weights and measures of gold and silver coins. Those coins the only lawful money mentioned in the constitution. Thus, the current fiat money system is unconstitutional, even if the Supreme Court has said otherwise.

His assertions regarding the health care system and 'solar panels' and other alternative energy schemes are the usual socialistic clap-trap and easily refuted because such projects cannot exist without government subsidies, which ipso facto proves that they are uneconomic and will make the energy related situation worse instead of better.

The alleged 'aversion to borrowing' clashes with the reality that the US government deficit is now one of the highest in history. An aversion to borrowing would be good, not bad.

There is also no 'aversion to hiring people', but rather an economic situation brought on by the government interventions of the past, which have been instrumental in creating a credit-financed boom that has turned to bust. The more additional interventions are undertaken, the worse the employment situation will become.

Finally, it is NOT the 'job of Congress' to get everyone a job or to invest in this or that. Government-directed investment schemes and 'make work' programs will only consume more scarce capital and further lower the standard of living for everyone except perhaps for the few recipients of make-shift work projects at the expense of everyone else.
No one in their right mind should support Kucinich's mad proposal, unless their intent is to purposely make matters far worse. Fortunately, that bill is going nowhere with Ron Paul as Chairman of the Monetary Policy Subcommittee. I fully expect Ron Paul to enter a valid proposal sometime in 2011.

Addendum:

Further clarification Email from Eugene Holloway:
Paper money is unconstitutional. Legal tender is unconstitutional. You and I know that as a historical fact. But the U.S. Supreme Court, exposing its nature as a political body, has ruled otherwise. All of this is explained in my essays at http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/hollowayndx.html.

In case someone disagrees with the assertion, the reason I insisted that giving the Congress the unfettered power to print money is unprecedented is that, when the Treasury (approved by Congress) was in charge of the currency, the currency was convertible to gold or competed with it -- the Congress was thus limited. Today there is neither a Constitutional (according to the high court) nor a golden limitation. So the comments of Justice Field apply more than ever. And even more so the comments of the dissenters in the 1935 case in which the Court upheld the law invalidating gold clauses in private contracts: "Loss of reputation for honorable dealing will bring us unending humiliation; the impending legal and moral chaos is appalling."

I am a lawyer. When people consult me about probable consequences of proposed actions, I advise based upon the prevailing precedents and opinions of judges, which are indicative of likely results.

So when I wrote those articles, I painstakingly walked the reader through the documents and history of how the Constitution has been turned on it's head -- because simply saying that paper money, etc., is unconstitutional is not especially credible when the common assumption is that the Supreme Court is a bulwark that protects us against the Constitutional excesses of the other two branches.

The point of my essays is to demonstrate how, slowly, over decades and centuries, the Supreme Court can establish that anything is Constitutional, even if the clear intent and words of the founders are otherwise.

Eugene C. Holloway
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Thứ Năm, 23 tháng 12, 2010

WSJ Reports New Jersey Pension Deficit at $54 Billion; Actual Deficit $174 Billion; Illinois, California, New Jersey Among Worst States

The Wall Street Journal reports New Jersey Pension Gap Hits $54 Billion.
New Jersey’s pension gap grew to $53.9 billion in the last fiscal year, up from $45.8 billion, thanks to market losses and a lack of state funding, according to figures released Thursday.

Gov. Chris Christie’s administration said the gap, which reflected the state’s investment positions as of June 30, highlighted the need for proposed cuts to current public workers’ pensions. The $53.9 billion figure reflects the difference between the retirement benefits the state has promised to roughly 780,000 state and local workers over the next few decades and the amount on hand to pay those benefits.

In addition, an accounting practice called “smoothing” allows the state to factor market gains and losses over several years — meaning pension funds, on paper, are still feeling the effect of the 2008 market crash.

Christie, a Republican, wants to reverse a 9% pension bump workers received in 2001 under a Republican administration. Unions argue their members have an irrevocable right to benefits they have earned. The governor has challenged the unions to meet him in court.
Actual Deficit Much Higher

There are at least two problems with that $54 billion number.

1. It allows smoothing
2. Plan assumptions expect average annual returns of 8.25%.

I highly doubt pensions return 8.25% total (let alone annual) over the next 5 years.

10-year treasury yields are a mere 3.4%. To get higher returns, requires higher risk. History shows how well that idea has worked out for the last 10 years. There is no reason to assume the next 10 years will be any different.

In fact, given stretched valuations and overly optimist earnings estimates, there is every reason to suspect the next 5 years will be worse.

New Jersey Pension Funding

Here is a look at New Jersey pension funding from Interactive Map of Public Pension Plans; How Badly Underfunded are the Plans in Your State?



see above link for a workable map

New Jersey Subtotals

PERS - $48 Billion
Teachers - $61 Billion
Police and Fire - $36 Billion

Those subtotals net to a combined $145 billion. They are from March 2010 so there has likely been some improvement since then. However, those totals do not include all of the state pension plans nor any deficits in city or county pension plans.

The interactive map and those subtotals are based on data from Calculating the Market Price of Public Sector Pension Liabilities, by Andrew Biggs at the American Enterprise Institute.

The American Enterprise Institute report is quite detailed. However, it only includes 3 of 7 New Jersey defined benefit pension plans.

New Jersey Defined Benefit Plans

  • Teacher's Pension Annuity Fund (TPAF)
  • Public Employees Retirement Fund (PERS),
  • Police and Firemen's Retirement System (PFRS)
  • State Police Retirement System (SPRS)
  • Judicial Retirement System (JRS)

There are two existing defined benefit plans closed to current workers, the Consolidated Police and Firemen's Pension Fund (CPFPF), and the Prison Officer's Pension Fund (POPF).

Thus, New Jersey's liability is hugely understated, even at $145 billion.

Crisis in Public Sector Pension Plans

Please consider Crisis in Public Sector Pension Plans by George Mason University.
Pension plans operated by state governments on behalf of their employees are underfunded by an estimated $452 billion according to official reports, with total liabilities of $2.8 trillion and total assets of $2.3 trillion in 2008. However, many economists argue that even these daunting liabilities are understated. Current public sector accounting methods allow plans to assume they can earn high investment returns without any risk. Using methods that are required for private sector pensions, which value pension liabilities according to likelihood of payment rather than the return expected on pension assets, total liabilities amount to $5.2 trillion and the unfunded liability rises to $3 trillion. The ability of governments to pay for the retirement benefits promised to public sector workers runs up against the reality of limited resources.

The state reports that its pension systems are underfunded by $44.7 billion, when liabilities are discounted at the 8.25 percent annual return that New Jersey predicts it can achieve on funds' investment portfolios.

However, when plan liabilities are calculated in a manner consistent with private sector accounting requirements, methods that economists almost universally agree are more appropriate, New Jersey's unfunded benefit obligation rises to $173.9 billion. This amount is equivalent to 44 percent of the state's current GDP8 and 328 percent of its current explicit government debt. This calculation applies a discount rate of 3.5 percent (the yield on Treasury bonds with a maturity of 15 years) to reflect the nearly risk-free nature of accrued benefits for workers. It is estimated if state pension assets average a return of 8 percent, New Jersey will run out of funds to meet its pension obligations in 2019. If asset returns are lower than 8 percent, they will run out of funds sooner. State actuaries estimate that under certain assumptions, New Jersey's pension plans will run out of assets to make benefit payments beginning in 2013.

Governor Chris Christie signed legislation on March 22, 2010 to reduce the size of the unfunded liability. These measures include capping payments for unused sick days, banning part-time workers from receiving pensions, and requiring government workers to contribute 1.5 percent of their salaries toward health care. Legislation also adjusted the formula used to calculate benefits, returning to the pre-2001 formula where benefits equalled 1.7 percent of final salary times number of years of service, versus 1.8 percent of final salary in the TPAF and PERS plans. Also, members of these plans would have their retirement allowance calculated based on the final five years of service, instead of the final three. However, these changes to benefits would apply only to newly-hired public employees. Current workers, even those who recently entered the job rolls, would be able to continue under the current benefit formula for the rest of their careers.

These measures will help at the margins but do little or nothing to address the size of the liability that has already been accrued. The rate of accrual of benefits will have to be reduced further, and employees will have to contribute more to their plans. The state must recognize that adding more workers to a system that is underfunded by $173 billion by market standards, representing over 40 percent of New Jersey's GDP, is not a tenable option.
The report cites Calculating the Market Price of Public Sector Pension Liabilities, the same study used to create the interactive map.

Report Recommendations

  • Reduce benefits for newly-hired public employees
  • All newly hired employees should be shifted to a defined contribution pension model based upon the plan already offered to New Jersey's university employees
  • Current reforms lowering pension replacement rates should be continued and, if possible, extended to current employees. All vested benefits should be honored, but the rate at which future benefits are earned should be reduced.
  • Current employees who are not yet vested in their benefits might be shifted along with newly hired employees to a defined contribution plan. This step could produce savings to existing DB plans while moving more quickly to a sustainable pension model for public employees.

I agree with those except honoring vested benefits. I recommend taxing the hell out of benefits above a certain level.

Here is a look at liabilities state by state.

Unfunded Liabilities by State



click on chart for sharper image

California is the worst state in absolute terms. In per capita terms, Illinois appears to be in the worst shape. However that statement does not factor in all of New Jersey's pension plans. Then again, the Biggs report does not include all of Illinois' public pension plans either. The mess everywhere is far bigger than it looks.

Pension Apartheid Doesn't Work

Unions are screaming about an Irrevocable Right to Benefits. Leo Kolivakis at Pension Pulse sums up the situation nicely.
State governments have little choice but to raise the retirement age, cut benefits, and partially or fully remove inflation protection of public sector pensions. They should also revise their rosy investment assumptions for state plans.

This may seem unfair and unreasonable to public sector workers, but to quote a strategist who I spoke with yesterday, "deleveraging sucks". You can't have pensions apartheid between the private and public sector. And there are no "irrevocable rights to benefits". Just look at the mess Greece and Ireland are in right now. When the money runs out, cuts are guaranteed.
Yes indeed. Not only do Greece and Ireland prove it, but so does Prichard, Alabama the first city in the country to default on pensions. Please see Alabama Town Defaults on Pensions, Breaks State Law; Renewed Calls For San Diego Bankruptcy; "Prichard is the Future" for details.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Florida League of Cities Poll on Police and Fire Salaries Shows Public out of Touch Regarding Benefits

An interesting Poll by the Florida League of Cities on Police and Fire Benefits shows the public is way out of touch with how generous police and fire benefits are. When asked if benefits were too high, most thought no. When given actual benefit levels most thought the opposite.

Here are snips from the executive summary and a few questions.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

When it comes to the pay and benefits of police and fire fighters, voters are generally unaware of the array of benefits currently afforded them. Initially and by a large margin most respondents felt these benefits are “about right” or “too low”.

We asked an extended series of questions identifying the assortment of pay and benefits currently provided to most police and fire fighters. Almost without exception, voters feel that most of these benefits are too generous. For example, 63% felt retirement benefits should be consistent with other government employees, 66% opposed 20 years and out, and 73% felt that adding overtime to base calculations was unfair. Further, 70% oppose DROP, 71% felt $70,000 per year average salary was too high, and a whopping 84% felt they should not make the same when they retire as when they are working!

Oddly, more than 60% stated that increasing benefits could bankrupt local government yet 77% do not equate these pension benefits to taxes and instead correlate higher taxes to “other spending and other government programs”.

We can conclude, based on these findings, that the public is largely ignorant or agnostic to benefit packages and salaries currently available to police and fire fighters. However, once they are informed about these benefits, they believe they are excessive and have problems with several of them specifically.

1. Do you think that the salary and benefits provided to police officers and fire fighters are:

Much Too High 9%
Somewhat High 12%
About Right 51%
Too Low 28%

Just over half of respondents said that salaries and benefits provided to police officers and fire fighters are just right.

3. Which of the following comes closer to your opinion?

Police officer and firefighters should be allowed to retire after 20 years of
service because their jobs are hard. 37%
They should have retirement benefits that are consistent with other government employees. 63%

4. In some cities, police officers or firefighters can retire after 20 years of service and receive 80% of their salaries for the rest of their lives. This means that for many, they can retire in their early to mid forties and receive pensions as high as $80,000 per year for the rest of their lives. Do you:

Strongly Support 16%
Somewhat Support 18%
Somewhat Oppose 24%
Strongly Oppose 42%
Support 34%
Oppose 66%

9. If you knew that the retirement pay for an average police officer was over $70,000 per year would you say:

That is Too Low 1%
That it is About Right 28%
That it is Too High 45%
That it is Much Too High 26%
These results show just how effective police and fire unions have been on fearmongering campaigns as well as bitching about how little they get paid and getting the public to believe it.

Cities need to do a far better job at education the public just how exorbitant police and fire contracts are, and that it is tax dollars that support those untenable benefits, putting cities in financial jeopardy.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Retail Recession Hits Australia; Retailers Cry for Help

In the face of a property bust down under, Australian shoppers have increasingly turned to the internet in search of bargains. In turn, Australia retailers are whining about $1000 duty free allowance on overseas shopping.

Retailers Cry For "Reform"

Please consider Retailers cry out for trading help
The gloom engulfing the nation's retailers is deepening in the week before Christmas - traditionally their best period.

Peak employer group the Victorian Employers Chamber of Commerce and Industry yesterday called for a stimulus-like package to help ailing retailers.

Spokesman Chris James said if retail did not rebound over Christmas, which it was unlikely to do, reforms were needed.

These included personal tax cuts to give people the confidence to start spending and industrial relations reform, with particular attention to lifting restrictions on businesses employing students and casuals.
Shopping Slump

Inquiring minds are reading Retailers cry poor as sales drop sharply
Major store bosses claim Australia is experiencing a retail recession, with the quietest and slowest Christmas shopping period in 20 years.

Rising utility bills, mortgage rates and rents have decimated families' disposable incomes, forcing many retailers to start Boxing Day sales one month in advance in a bid to entice shoppers.

Harvey Norman boss Gerry Harvey said there would be "blood on the streets" in the retail sector because business is so bad, the worst since the recession of the early 1990s.

"It's a crisis, the worst in 20 years," he said.

"There is a recession in retail right now. Boxing Day sales have had to come early because retailers need to sell something to pay their staff."

The news comes as the Government announced an inquiry into the future of the retail sector to examine issues of competition, and the $1000 GST and duty-free threshold on overseas shopping.

Australian retailers and shopping centre owners have formed an alliance to try to persuade the government to abolish the $1000 GST-free threshold. They plan to spend millions on an advertising campaign to try to have imported goods subject to tax and import duty.
Subdued Sales

The West Australian reports Slow start to festive season sales
Retail Traders Association of WA executive director Wayne Spencer says the sales on Boxing Day, the biggest retail trading day of the year, will be vital for struggling retailers this year.

"It's make or break for the retailers," he said.

Mr Spencer predicts WA's spend will slip from $2.81 billion last year to $2.8 billion this year.

He said despite there being an additional 52,000 people in WA, the spend was likely to be down, close to 10 per cent a person.

The Australian Retailers Association says more than 65 per cent of retailers nationally are trading worse than the same time last year.
Email From Down Under

I frequently get emails from down under. Here is one from "Brisbane Bear" that just came in.
Hey Mish,

Retailers are desperately lobbying the government to do 'something' about the dire state of the economy. Retail is being hit by the perfect storm and shoppers are turning to the internet.

For example, a shirt made in China for $5, sells in the USA for $30. The same shirt might sell for Australia for $120. A pair of quality boots selling for $120 online, retails in OZ for $220.

Our business models are not even remotely competitive.

The internet is not only letting people buy cheaper, it is actually allowing people to compare prices. Folks are learning quick smart that they are & have been ripped off for years.

The other big problem businesses are facing are these Groupon type companies offering amazing deals on just about everything.

These deal prices are quickly becoming the new price.

Regards
Brisbane Bear
Commercial Real Estate Bust Coming

Sales are flat and Australian merchants are screaming. Watch what happens when sales drop 10%. Inquiring minds might be wondering how stores can be struggling so much. The answer is a massively overbuilt retail sector and stores are struggling to meet their monthly nut. The same thing happened in the US.

Look for a wave of bankruptcies, vacancies, and a huge commercial real estate bust to go along with the residential housing bust. That was point number six in Ten Economic and Investment Themes for 2011
6. Property Bubble Bursts Wide Open in Australia and Canada

Australia, having largely avoided the global recession runs out of luck this time around. Look for the Australian economy to fall into outright recession. Look for Canada to slow dramatically as its property bubble pops. The US property bubble is much further progressed, by years, than Australia, Canada, and China. This matters immensely.
On April 18, 2008 I wrote Shopping Center Economic Model Is History. 2 years and 8 months later, Australia is about to find out the same thing.

Halting the $1000 GST and duty-free threshold on overseas shopping will increase the demand for bargains. Marginal stores are in serious trouble.

Look for Australia's "retail recession" to become a full blown recession.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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